How are the current geopolitical developments reshaping investor-State dispute settlement?

We were pleased to bring together leading voices in the field for a timely and reflective exchange on the challenges facing ISDS. The panel featured Meg Kinnear (Former Secretary-General of ICSID and Co-Founder of Low & Kinnear Dispute Resolution), Prof. Dr. Mohamed Abdel Wahab C.Arb, FCIArb (Founding Partner of Zulficar & Partners and Professor of International Arbitration, Private International Law and English Contract Law, Cairo University) and Túlio Di Giacomo Toledo (Senior Legal Counsel at the PCA). It was introduced by Melanie van Leeuwen (Founding Partner, Vanguard International Dispute Resolution) and moderated by Sophia Von Dewall (Founding Partner, Vanguard International Dispute Resolution).

💡 Key takeaways from the discussion:

• Rising geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions - from armed conflicts to sanctions and tariffs - are reshaping the landscape of investment treaty arbitration.

• While many of these dynamics echo historical patterns, today’s environment is marked by an unprecedented density of measures and heightened geopolitical volatility.

• We are seeing the emergence of new categories of ISDS claims, including those linked to energy security, critical minerals, defense, water resources, fintech, IP/data, and crypto.

• The current ISDS framework remains adaptable. However, the interpretation and scope of investment protection standards - as well as available defenses (e.g. necessity, duress, national security exceptions) - are likely to evolve in response to these shifting realities.

• Ongoing ISDS reform efforts point toward recalibration rather than transformation.

• Pre-arbitration mechanisms - particularly mediation and conciliation - deserve greater attention as effective tools for dispute resolution.

A big thank you to our distinguished speakers and all participants for such a dynamic exchange!